Proposed tariffs could have a huge impact on Ohio’s corn and soybean producers

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Another round of talks in the ongoing trade war with China has led to another set of concerns for agriculture due to the potentially huge ramifications for the nation’s exports and commodity process.Ohio’s crop producers are holding out hope that, in the end, things will work out for the good of U.S. trade, but the stakes are very high for Ohio’s top agricultural crops. The political rhetoric and potential for massive demand impacts for corn, soybeans and wheat change by the hour on this ongoing one-upping of tariff roulette. At press time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection was set to begin collecting additional duties on designated Chinese goods July 6.“We should address our trade challenges by increasing our competitiveness, not creating new barriers,” said Allen Armstrong, Ohio Soybean Association president and Clark County soybean farmer. “Exports have been one of the few bright spots for farmers in recent years, and we can’t afford another hit to the bottom line.”The Ohio Soybean Association denounced the White House’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion in Chinese products, which China has said it will answer with a retaliatory 25% tariff on imported U.S. soybeans, corn and over 100 other American products. China purchases 61% of total U.S. soybean exports and more than 30% of overall U.S. soybean production.“The collateral damage in this trade war will include not only Ohio grain farmers, but all Ohioans,” said Scott Metzger, OSA first vice president and Ross County soybean farmer. “Farm incomes are at multiyear lows, and this action will harm our state’s largest industry by undermining our top agricultural export.”Across Ohio, the loss of soybean exports to China would be an estimated $241 million annually, according to research from Ohio State University’s College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES). According to the Ohio Development Services Agency, Ohio’s $1.8 billion in soybean exports in 2017 accounted for more than 3.5% of all Ohio commodity exports. Ohio is the sixth largest producer of soybeans in the U.S., with 4.8 million acres planted in 2017 and more than 60% of the state’s entire soybean production exported to international markets. China imported $13.9 billion in U.S. soybeans in 2017, 61% of total U.S. soy exports.When combined with losses from corn prices, Ohio State University researchers have projected a 59% loss in annual net farm income based on historical trends in yields on corn and soybeans and projections for price drops in both commodities due to the tariffs.For the study, the researchers compiled data from six Ohio corn and soybean farms of similar size and created a representative Ohio farm comprised of 1,100 acres split evenly between corn and soybeans. They used the representative farm to determine the financial toll a tariff could take on an Ohio farm.Net annual income on that representative Ohio farm was projected to drop from $63,577 to $26,107 under the proposed tariff, according to the study performed by Ben Brown, manager of CFAES’s farm management program and Ian Sheldon an agricultural economist, who serves as the Andersons Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade and Policy in CFAES.“There are farmers who are struggling across the state,” Brown said. “If the proposed tariffs go into effect, we’re going to have farmers who will have to exit the industry.”The financial losses stem from an expected drop in Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans and corn and in the world price for both crops.“The biggest impact will be on profits from soybeans, however corn is affected too,” Brown said.Other international trading partners, including Canada, the European Union, and Mexico have recently announced retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well, that could also dip into the profits of Ohio farmers.The losses from soybeans sales are projected to be far greater than for corn. Every year, 31% of the soybeans and 2% of the corn Ohio produces are exported to China.China is the largest buyer of soybeans in the world, and Brazil is its top supplier with the United States being second. If China imposes the threatened 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans that will drive up the price that Chinese companies have to pay for U.S. soybeans and encourage them to buy even more soybeans from Brazil, Brown said.“The U.S. remains the largest producers of soybeans, but it is safe to say that Brazil could become the number one producer of soybeans in the world with increased demand for their products,” said Brown, who along with Sheldon are in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics within CFAES.The United States may not be able to regain its share in selling soybeans to China, Sheldon said.He pointed to how the United States lost market share for its beef beginning in 2003 following Japan’s ban on imports of U.S. beef due to cases of mad cow disease in the United States. Taking advantage of the opportunity, Australia was able to increase its exports of beef to Japan, and the United States has not regained its share in that market, Sheldon said.“Why lose market share when you’re competing as well as you can,” Sheldon said of U.S. exports of soybeans and the prospect of a trade war with China. “It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.”last_img read more

FD Early Intervention Webinar: Strategies to Support Families Experiencing Difficult Circumstances

first_imgDate:  December 8, 2016Time:  11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. ESTLocation: Strategies to Support Families Experiencing Difficult Circumstances“Welcome Home , Mommy!” by The US Army CC BY 2.0 (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Brad Mincey/Released)Carol Trivette, Ph.D. earned her degree from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro in Child Development and Family Relations.  Her research interests focus on identifying evidence-based practices for working with children and families in the areas of responsive parental interactions with their children with disabilities, family-centered practices and family support, and the development of tools and scales to support the implementation of evidence-based practices with fidelity. She is currently an Associate Professor at East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN.In this session, Dr. Carol Trivette will cap her yearlong webinar series sharing resources and discussing evidence-based practices that providers can implement when they are working with military families in particular, who are facing difficult situations. Participants are encouraged to engage and share challenges, resources, and successes they have experienced working with families of young children with disabilities.  Join us Dec. 8 at 11:00 a.m. EST!The MFLN FD Early Intervention team offers continuing education credits through the Early Intervention Training Program (EITP) at the University of Illinois for each of our webinars, click here to learn more. For more information on future presentations in the 2016 Family Development webinar series, please visit our professional development website or connect with us via social media for announcements: see our Facebook & Twitter.last_img read more

1980: Sanjay Gandhi’s unexpected death put whole nation in mourn

first_imgSetting Son Sanjay Gandhi’s death was as sudden as it was violent. It was also self-indulgent. Warned often about his dangerous aerobatics at the Delhi Flying Club, Gandhi pushed his S2-A Pitts biplane too far and too low on that fateful June day. Mrs Gandhi suddenly found herself without her,Setting SonSanjay Gandhi’s death was as sudden as it was violent. It was also self-indulgent. Warned often about his dangerous aerobatics at the Delhi Flying Club, Gandhi pushed his S2-A Pitts biplane too far and too low on that fateful June day. Mrs Gandhi suddenly found herself without her point man and airline pilot Rajiv Gandhi found himself a new career. Sanjay’s death left a big question mark over Delhi skies: would he have given Indian politics the catharsis it so badly needed? Would he have ushered in a one party dictatorship? Would he have become prime minister?The Last LeapIndia won a hockey gold medal at the 1980 Moscow Olympics, beating Spain 4-3 in the finals. This was the last gold India would ever win at the Games, in both individual and team events.”YOU CAN’T SHAKE HANDS WITH A CLENCHED FIST.”-Indira GandhiShe saw her plans pan out immaculately as the Charan Singh government collapsed even before it was able to get to its feet. With the incumbent Janata Party fractured by infighting and losing credibility before the public with its incessant anti-Indira rhetoric, all the former prime minister had to do to bring the house of cards crashing down was coin a classic line like “Choose a Government that Works” to seal the fate of her opponents.”I do not mind if today somebody regards the Bharatiya Janata Party as a Hindu party.”-L.K. ADVANI about the newly-formed BJP. Anger RightGovind Nihalani gave a hint of thingsto come with his directorial debut, Aakrosh. The film, featuring the art frat including Om Puri, Naseeruddin Shah, Smita Patil and Amrish Puri,was based on a true story that was adapted for screen by Marathiplaywright Vijay Tendulkar. The hard-hitting film established Nihalanias a no-nonsense direct.56 per cent of Indian women were in the age group of 15 to 19. The figure was higher than in many developed countries, where it was 39 per cent. This, despite India’s infant mortality rate being a high 113 per 1,000 live births.Elesewhere…Yugoslav President Tito died and the funeral ceremony saw more than 140 state delegations in Belgrade from all over the world.The Summer Olympic Games kicked off in Moscow. Sixty-six nations, including the US, Canada, West Germany and Japan, boycotted the games in protest against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.Former Beatle John Lennon died after being shot outside the Dakota Entrance of his New York City home, by Mark David Chapman, a deranged fan who had taken his autograph earlier in the day.First CutPrakash Padukone became the first Indian to win the prestigious All England Open badminton title when he beat Indonesian Liem Swie King. It was the only All England finals that King lost between 1978 and 1981. In 1981, Padukone faltered in his title defence, as King proved too good and too steady to be beaten at the pinnacle of the sport once again.Did You KnowOn June 24, just a day after the death of Sanjay Gandhi, President V.V. Giri also passed away in Chennai at the age of 85. A national mourning was declared after the twin tragedies.advertisementlast_img read more

a month agoAston Villa boss Smith confident Grealish will find form

first_imgAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Aston Villa boss Smith confident Grealish will find formby Paul Vegasa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveAston Villa manager Dean Smith has backed Jack Grealish to find some form.The midfielder and Villa captain has struggled to play at his highest level so far this season.”There will be more to come from Jack. He wants to get better. You end up sometimes dragging him off the training ground because he wants to get better. It’s a massive plus in his favour,” he said.”Jack’s a football person. He will train all day and go and find a room somewhere and fall asleep. Then he’ll wake up and go and do a gym session, that’s how he is.”He’s that sort of character – I’m surprised his girlfriend is still with him! He’ll go back home and he’ll be watching football as well. He’s a football nut.”Jack and John McGinn were probably our most influential players last season and to expect them to be as influential in the Premier League is asking a little bit too much straightaway. But they are getting better and better, that’s for sure.”What we want Jack to do is to be running at opposition players and hurting them like he did against Crystal Palace.” last_img read more

Canadas climate plan not enough entire G7 must do more report says

first_imgOTTAWA — A report card on the climate action plans of the world’s wealthiest nations suggests not one of them is on track to meet even their own stated climate goals.The Climate Action Network, an international network of more than 1,300 climate groups, is issuing the report as the leaders of the G7 gather for their annual meeting in France this weekend.The Paris climate change agreement signed by all G7 nations in 2015 aims to keep global warming as close to 1.5 C as possible.The report card places Canada at the bottom of the pack with the United States and Japan, and the existing plans of all three are compatible with global warming above 4 C — a threshold that threatens to bring potentially catastrophic consequences to the planet.France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom have plans that would see global warming exceed 3 C by the end of the century.The report says Canada has some good policies, like ending the use of coal and maintaining a national price on pollution, but that they are nowhere near enough.The Canadian Presslast_img read more

Grande Prairie RCMP seek assistance in locating missing person

first_imgGRANDE PRAIRIE, A.B. – Grande Prairie RCMP are seeking the public’s assistance in locating 33-year-old Patrick Decque.According to the RCMP, Decque was last seen in Grande Prairie on May 22, 2019.Decque is described as: CaucasianBlack hairBrown eyes6’0” / 230 lbsLast seen wearing a grey suitThere is a concern for Decque’s well-being.If you have any information regarding Decque’s whereabouts, you are being asked to contact the Grande Prairie RCMP at 780-830-5701 or CrimeStoppers at 1-800-222-TIPS.last_img read more

Coalition of regional parties fizzle out as constituents go separate ways

first_imgDarjeeling: The coalition of regional parties in Darjeeling Hills and the exercise to field a consensus candidate fizzled out with the constituents deciding to go their own ways. Even Congress and Left Front have fielded their own candidates.The Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF) has decided to form an alliance with the Bimal Gurung faction of the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha. The coalition will be supporting the BJP candidate from the Darjeeling constituency. Also Read – Bengal family worships Muslim girl as Goddess Durga in Kumari PujaInterestingly, the bigwigs of the Bimal Gurung faction of the GJM, namely Gurung and Roshan Giri, are absconding. In a joint press conference in Delhi on Monday, the GNLF-GJM (Bimal faction) pledged their support to the BJP. “This has been done in the greater interest of the Gorkhas and to defeat anti-Gorkha forces,” stated Niraj Zimba, spokesperson, GNLF. The coalition feels that the BJP alone can fulfill the aspiration of the Gorkhas. When questioned on the public demand for local candidates for the Darjeeling constituency, Binu Sundas of the GJM (Bimal faction) said: “We had thought of this but had to compromise.” The BJP has not yet announced the names of candidates. Also Read – Bengal civic volunteer dies in road mishap on national highwayWhen questioned on the GNLF-GJM (Bimal faction) coalition, Binay Tamang, president of the GJM said: “The GNLF does not have any base in the Hills. The leaders of the other party are absconding. How will the coalition matter?” Meanwhile Shanker Malakar, the sitting MLA of Matigara-Naxalbari, has been fielded by the Congress for the Darjeeling constituency. The name of Saman Pathak was declared by the Left Front on Tuesday as their candidate for Darjeeling.last_img read more

NGT forms panel to prepare national plan for polluted rivers

first_imgNew Delhi: The NGT has formed a Central Monitoring Committee to prepare and enforce a national plan to make over 350 river stretches across the country pollution free as it has caused serious threat to safety of water and environment. A bench headed by Nation Green Tribunal (NGT) Chairperson Justice Adarsh Kumar Goel said the committee would comprise a representative of NITI Aayog; secretaries of Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Urban Development and Ministry of Environment; the director general of National Mission for Clean Ganga and the Central Pollution Control Board chairman. Also Read – Uddhav bats for ‘Sena CM’The Central Monitoring Committee will also co-ordinate with the River Rejuvenation Committees of the states and oversee the execution of the action plans, taking into account the timelines, budgetary mechanism and other factors. Chief secretaries of states will be the nodal agency at state level. “The chief secretaries of the states may undertake review of progress of RRCs by involving concerned secretaries of Department of Urban Development, Environment, Industries, Irrigation and Public Health, Health etc,” the bench said. Also Read – Farooq demands unconditional release of all detainees in J&KThe tribunal also directed the Ministry of Environment to consider a policy for giving environmental awards to outstanding persons (natural and juristic) and institutions or states and introducing “dis-incentives” for non compliant states and asked it to frame such scheme before June 30. “First meeting of the Central Monitoring Committee may be held by June 30. The Central Monitoring Committee may consider identifying experts, best practices and models for use of treated water, including plan to supply untreated sewage for a price or otherwise so that the concerned needy party can treat and utilise such water as is reportedly being done at Surat in Gujarat, Nagpur in Maharashtra and Bhilwada in Rajasthan or any other place,” it said. Use of treated water for agriculture or other purpose may save potable surface and ground water, it said. The NGT directed the Central Monitoring Committee to give its report by July 31. “We direct the CPCB and state pollution control boards to launch nationwide programme on biodiversity monitoring and indexing of the rivers to assess the efficacy of river cleaning programme. Further, for safety of human health and maintaining sanctity of the rivers, regular hygienic surveys of the rivers should be carried out with reference to fecal coliform and fecal streptococci, as indicated in the primary water quality criteria for bathing waters,” the NGT said. The tribunal noted that due to use of polluted water in irrigation, there is threat to the health of human beings apart from the aquatic flora and fauna. “It is therefore necessary to have regular hygienic survey of the rivers particularly with reference to pathogenic organisms having impact on human health directly or indirectly. It is also important to note that biological health of the rivers is an important aspect. Much of the important biodiversity is lost on account of severe pollution in the rivers. “There has to be a regular study of the Indian rivers with regard to biological heath and its diversity. We understand that biomapping of rivers and setting biological goals/criteria is part of River Rejuvenation Programmes in some countries. There is threat to the environmental rule of law of the country,” it said. The tribunal’s direction came after taking note of a news item in ‘The Hindu’ under the heading “More river stretches are now critically polluted: CPCB”. According to the news item, 351 polluted river stretches have been noted by the CPCB and 117 such stretches are in the states of Assam, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. The CPCB has apprised the concerned states of the extent of pollution in the rivers.last_img read more

Just Win Baby And Youll Probably Make The College Football Playoff

Clemson 9-013667%67%17% Ohio State 9-032544%57%15% Oklahoma St. 9-01441337%23%5% Memphis 8-11331453%<1%<1% TeamCFPEloFPIConf. TitlePlayoffNat. Title College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 3. But back to football substance. I mentioned before how lots of teams, even if they don’t technically control their own destiny,7No team controls its own destiny, technically, since there are no guaranteed bids in the playoff. are favored to make the playoff if they win the rest of their games. Now that the model is (hopefully) doing a better job of mimicking the emphasis that human voters place on wins and losses, we can be more precise about that. Specifically, the model estimates that 14 teams have a 50 percent or greater likelihood of making the playoff conditional on winning out.The model figures that Michigan State, for instance, has an 86 percent chance of making the playoff if it wins out. Even the lowliest one-loss major conference team, North Carolina, which wasn’t ranked by the committee last week, is about even-money to make the playoff if it wins out. And undefeated Iowa (91 percent) and Oklahoma State (97 percent) are all but assured of making the playoff if they finish the year without a loss, even if the committee doesn’t have them in the top four tonight. Baylor 8-067234%32%12% Notre Dame 8-1569—30%7% Iowa 9-09132927%18%2% Texas A&M 6-3194923<1%<1%<1% And here’s a new summary table showing the playoff picture heading into tonight, when the playoff committee will release its new rankings at 7 p.m. Undefeated Baylor has moved slightly ahead of one-loss Notre Dame in our forecast, but otherwise the top six are unchanged. LSU 7-129814%15%4% Oklahoma 8-11514119%17%7% Last season’s first-ever College Football Playoff might have miscalibrated everyone’s sense of what it takes to make it to the final four. Six power conference champions or co-champions1Thanks to a dubious decision by the Big 12. — Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU — were undefeated or had one loss against reasonably good schedules. There’s plenty of room to critique how the committee went about leaving Baylor and TCU out, but there was no one inherently correct way to slot six fairly equally matched teams into four playoff positions.But a field as crowded and qualified as last year’s was atypical. Most of the time there are a couple of teams that are weak links: a three-loss conference champion here, a one-loss team that played an incredibly weak schedule there. A mess like last year’s isn’t impossible, obviously. But usually the knot will untangle itself through conference championships, rivalry games and upsets that knock teams out late in the season.So don’t despair, Michigan State fans. (Of which I’m one.) Yeah, you probably lost on a bad call last weekend. But you’re still highly likely to make the playoff if your team wins all of its remaining games, in which case you’ll have defeated Ohio State and (probably) Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Pretty much every one-loss team from a power conference is more likely than not to make the playoff if it wins out.And an undefeated power conference team like Oklahoma State shouldn’t fret, even if it is currently outside the committee’s top four. Some of the teams ranked in front of it are almost certain to lose — and even if they don’t, there’s a good chance Oklahoma State will leapfrog some one-loss teams if it keeps winning.Our subjective perceptions of the playoff picture aren’t the only thing that may be miscalibrated, though. The same could be said about the FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff model. At least, that’s the conclusion we came to when we were conducting research for this article. Although the model seems to give basically reasonable answers, a couple of things left us scratching our heads when we examined it more deeply.For instance, it posited a conspicuously large gap between Iowa’s chance of winning the Big Ten championship (27 percent) and making the playoff (8 percent). Iowa is undefeated, and while it’s possible they could win the Big Ten with one loss or more, the internal calculations in the model also implied that they’d have only about a 55 percent chance of making the playoff even if they ran their record to 13-0. One can see why a computer might come to that conclusion — Iowa has played a pretty bad schedule, and its margin of victory hasn’t been impressive — but human beings are going to vote an undefeated Big Ten champion into the playoff unless almost everything else2For instance, incredibly strong contenders from the other power conferences. is working against them.Readers had some questions for us too. Why was USC, which already has three losses, given any realistic chance by the model (granted, it was just 4 percent) of making the playoff? And why was one-loss Alabama’s chance of making the playoff so much higher than its SEC championship chances? There are some good reasons for that one,3In particular, if both Alabama and Mississippi had won out, Alabama would have lost the tiebreaker in the SEC West and missed the SEC championship game. The model inferred, correctly I think, that a one-loss Alabama team probably would still have made the playoff (perhaps along with a second SEC team) under those circumstances. This became a moot point when Mississippi was spectacularly upset by Arkansas. but even accounting for those, the gap seemed to be too wide and the model seemed to be too optimistic about Alabama still making the playoff if it endured a second loss.The theme here is that human beings pay a lot of attention to wins and losses — more than our computer seemed to be doing. An undefeated power conference team is going to get in except under rare circumstances. Two-loss power conference teams have historically finished in the AP top four more often than you might think, but it’s still a hard road. And a three-loss team making the playoff? Almost impossible unless there’s total carnage everywhere else.Since the whole point of our model is to mimic human intuition, reader feedback made us think it had some blind spots. So we re-examined the historical data4Since the playoff selection committee is only one year old, this also includes the behavior of the coaches’ poll since 2002. and concluded that our model should be placing more weight on plain-vanilla wins and losses. Or at least, it should be doing so for power conference teams (and for Notre Dame); minor conference teams historically haven’t been treated that kindly by either poll voters or the committee. Even if the committee currently ranks a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team, or a two-loss team ahead of a one-loss team, it may re-examine the case in future weeks, and the team with fewer losses will often get the benefit of the doubt. (For a more technical explanation of how this is implemented in the model, see the footnotes.5One change we introduced earlier to the model is that it reverts the projected committee standings each week toward a team’s Elo rating. Elo ratings are a fairly simple method that often correspond pretty well with human judgment in ranking sports teams. But there’s an even simpler method: a rating based solely on a team’s win-loss record and whether it plays in a power conference. The new version of the model reverts a team’s ranking based on a combination of its Elo rating and its win-loss record, instead of its Elo rating alone.)This relatively simple change has little impact for most teams, but it does affect a couple of the cases that had bothered us (and some of our loyal readers). Iowa’s chances of making the playoff are now 18 percent instead of 8 percent. Alabama’s are 42 percent instead of 54 percent. USC’s are 1 percent6USC has a decent chance of winning the Pac-12 championship, but it would take a perfect storm of circumstances to get them into the playoff even if they did. instead of 4 percent. Here’s how everyone’s odds were affected by the change: USC 6-3—19719%1%<1% UCLA 7-22321186%3%<1% RankingProbability of … Utah 8-112112122%12%2% Temple 8-122283943%<1%<1% Mississippi St. 7-22016153%3%<1% Florida State 7-21624170%<1%<1% Navy 7-1—155419%<1%<1% Stanford 8-11151152%26%5% Wisconsin 8-2—17243%<1%<1% TCU 8-1812310%11%4% Florida 8-110101438%19%3% Michigan 7-217201613%6%1% Houston 9-025223633%2%<1% Northwestern 7-2212961<1%<1%<1% Alabama 8-141435%42%12% Toledo 7-12440539%<1%<1% North Carolina 8-1—182030%5%<1% Michigan St. 8-1782212%10%1% Mississippi 7-31826109%<1%<1% So the tough part for teams like Michigan State isn’t sweating the committee’s decision if it wins the Big Ten; it’s getting to that point in the first place. With Ohio State and Iowa still in the way; the Spartans have only an 11 percent chance of running the table. read more